In continuation of the ‘Inside the economy series’….
Why planning without facts is just a expensive gamble.
So, the National Population Commission (NPC) announced its latest “readiness” for the National Census in early 2026, and it felt like déjà vu. Another assurance. Another budget allocation. Another year of “estimated” lives. Now the question is simple: How can a government fix a problem it cannot accurately measure?
The Guesswork Governance
In Nigeria, policy failure often starts with a blank spreadsheet. We are a nation of “approximate” figures. Whether it is the number of out-of-school children or the actual volume of petrol consumed daily, our policies are built on projections, not precision. At the centre of this issue are:
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The Invisible Citizen: Millions of Nigerians in the informal sector exist outside any official database.
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Delayed Snapshots: Our last successful census was in 2006. We are currently navigating a 2026 economy using 20-year-old DNA.
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The “Estimate” Trap: When you guess the population, you guess the need for hospitals, schools, and transformers.
Living in the “Approximate”
On paper, the lack of data creates a massive gap between allocation and impact:
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The Census Void: Nigeria’s population is currently estimated at 241 million (Worldometer/UN data), but without a verified census, per capita planning remains a shot in the dark.
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Unaccessed Wealth: As of March 2026, over ₦97.88 billion in Universal Basic Education (UBEC) funds sits idle. Why? Because many states lack the verified enrollment data and counterpart “structures” to trigger the release.
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The 18.5 Million: UNICEF data continues to flag Nigeria as having the world’s highest number of out-of-school children (approx. 18.5 million), yet local government data often contradicts these figures, leading to paralyzed interventions.
From a macro perspective, this suggests: We are distributing resources based on political influence rather than documented need.
Reality on the Ground
Now step outside the data. Talk to:
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A Local Government Chairman trying to distribute “palliatives” using a 5-year-old community list.
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A Tech Founder in Yaba trying to pitch a solution but unable to find credible “Market Size” data for Northern Nigeria.
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A Doctor in a rural clinic who receives medicine for 100 people when 500 show up at the door.
Then state what’s happening in real life: When data is missing, the loudest voice gets the resources, not the hungriest stomach. That’s not just a statistic. That’s systemic exclusion.
The Core Tension
Here is the real tension:
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The Innovation: The government is launching the “National AI Strategy” and “Digital Economy Bills” in 2026.
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The Foundation: We still don’t have a synchronized National Identity system that links a citizen’s bank account, tax ID, and home address. You cannot run a 21st-century digital economy on a 20th-century paper foundation.
Pressure Points
There are three key areas under scrutiny:
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Planning in the Dark Without a census, the “Redistribution of Wealth” is a myth. We don’t know exactly where the poverty is deepest.
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The Informal Blindspot Over 60% of Nigeria’s GDP is informal. Policies like “Tax Reform” often fail because the government only sees the 10% who are already paying.
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Institutional Silos The NBS, NIMC, and NPC often hold different versions of the truth. This “data friction” slows down every major reform.
The Verdict
This is not a lack of technology. But it is a failure of baseline facts. It is the Estimation Phase.
Policies are not judged by the ambition of the “Digital Bill.” They are judged by the accuracy of the “Household Survey.” Until we count every Nigerian, we will continue to miss every target.
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