The Statement
Following major economic reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu — including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal tightening — government officials and economic analysts have argued that Nigeria’s inflation rate has significantly declined.
The claim specifically states that inflation, which exceeded 30% in 2024, dropped to around 15% by early 2026 as a result of these reforms.
This assertion has been used to demonstrate that macroeconomic stabilisation policies are beginning to yield results after an initial period of economic shock.
The Facts
1. Inflation exceeded 30% in 2024
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics confirms that Nigeria experienced a sharp rise in inflation throughout 2024.
- Inflation rose to 31.70% in February 2024
- It climbed further to 34.19% in June 2024
- By December 2024, inflation peaked at approximately 34.8%
This period marked one of the highest inflationary episodes in Nigeria since the 1990s, driven largely by:
- Fuel subsidy removal (May 2023)
- Exchange rate devaluation
- Rising food and transport costs
2. Inflation declined significantly through 2025
By 2025, official data shows a consistent downward trend:
- Inflation fell to 20.12% in August 2025
- It dropped further to 16.05% in October 2025
- By December 2025, it reached approximately 15.15%
This decline followed:
- Tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria
- Reduced base effects after inflation spikes in 2024
- Gradual stabilisation of the foreign exchange market
3. Inflation hovered around 15% in early 2026
Recent data confirms that inflation remained close to the 15% range in early 2026:
- 15.06% in February 2026
- 15.38% in March 2026 (slight increase after months of decline)
Reports indicate that inflation had declined from about 33% in late 2024 to around 15% by early 2026, before experiencing renewed pressure from global fuel price shocks.
4. Role of economic reforms — direct and indirect effects
The decline in inflation coincides with reforms implemented since 2023, including:
- Fuel subsidy removal
- Exchange rate liberalisation
- Fiscal consolidation
However, evidence suggests the decline is not solely due to reforms, but also influenced by:
- Base-year effects after extreme inflation spikes
- Statistical rebasing of CPI in 2024, which altered inflation calculations
- Temporary easing in food price growth
Additionally, inflation pressures have not disappeared:
- Fuel prices rose again in 2026 due to global shocks
- Food inflation remains a major driver
- Inflation ticked upward again in March 2026
The Conclusion
Available data confirms that Nigeria’s inflation:
- Exceeded 30% throughout 2024
- Declined steadily through 2025
- Reached approximately 15% by early 2026
However, attributing this decline entirely to economic reforms oversimplifies a more complex reality. The reduction reflects a combination of policy measures, statistical base effects, and temporary economic adjustments, while inflationary pressures remain structurally significant.
Verdict: Mostly True